Forecasting the Numbers of Schools, Teachers and Students at the Makkah Al-Mukarramah Region Using Time Series Analysis

Document Type : Original Article

Author

the General Administration of Education, Makkah Al-Mukarramah Region

Abstract

 
Abstract:
     This research aims  to study the reality of the quantitative change in the number of schools, teachers and students of the General Administration of Education in the region of Makkah Al-Mukarramah from 1998/1999 to 2019/2020 and  to predict it in the future depending on its change curve in the past  through:  Studying the reality and describing the quantitative change of basic elements in education during the past period. Finding predictive values ​​for the numbers of schools, teachers and students (boys, girls) using time series analysis "Box and Jenkins methodology" for the next ten years (up to the year 2029).  The research found that there are incremental quantitative changes in different proportions during the past period, which are logical changes due to population growth and development in all aspects of life, and it is natural that the increase in schools and teachers is associated with the increase in the number of male and female students. The study also found an increase in schools, students and teachers during the next ten years with the  exception of continuing education schools for girls as the results indicated the beginning of their decline and a decrease in the number of female students at that stage which indicates the effectiveness and impact of the literacy campaigns implemented by the administration. This is in line with the Ministry of Education's approach to achieving the sustainable development goals by making education available to all segments of society. Hence, planners and decision-makers can refer to the results of this research and similar forecasting research , be enlightened by them while making decisions and developing future plans.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

المراجع الأجنبية
Adhikari, R. (2013). An Introductory Study on Time Series Modeling and Forecasting, Germany, LAP Lambert Academic Publishing.
Din, Marilena Aura. (2015). ARIMA by Box Jenkins Methodology for Estimation and Forecasting Models in Higher Education, ATINER'S Conference Paper Series 2016, No: EMS2015-1846, Athens. January 2015.
SEAN, B. (2013). Introduction to Time Series sing Stata, Published by Stata Press. Stata Grup LLC CLollege Station, Texas
McCalman, S. (2012). Forcasting National Ecomonic Review,Issue 67, National Institute of Economic and Industry Research.

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics